AI Trading: Why the Algorithm Stands Aside
Duration 4:11
AI-driven algorithmic trading doesn't spend its time buying — quite the opposite. Most of the time, the algorithm holds back: conviction thresholds, risk limits, circuit breakers. From the first rule of the 1980s to quantum computing in 2025, by way of BlackRock's Aladdin platform, Two Sigma, Renaissance Technologies and Numerai, we break down how it actually works and how the ESMA regulator has responded.
Chapters
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Transcript
A trading algorithm doesn't buy all the time. Most of the time, it watches and does nothing. That silence is its default position. These systems have changed in nature. They went from fixed rules written by humans to models that learn from the markets on their own. It all begins in the 1980s. The first automated systems follow simple rules. If a condition is true, the order goes out, with no nuance. In the 2000s, the models grow more complex. They read data in real time to guide every decision. The flow becomes the raw material. Machine learning marks the decisive turning point. The algorithm no longer just executes. It adapts and learns continuously. That's where everything shifts. Let's look at the real mechanics. The model receives the market flow. From that constant noise, it extracts a signal. A signal is only a hypothesis. But a signal is not enough. It has to cross a threshold of conviction. Below it, the algorithm holds back and lets it pass. Doubt means abstention. This is the heart of the discipline. Doing nothing is the most frequent case. Restraint is part of the strategy. Suppose the signal is strong enough. A second gate opens. The position has to stay within strict risk limits. Otherwise, the order is refused. And a safeguard watches over everything. Beyond a certain loss, the circuit breaker triggers. Everything stops. It's the last line of defense. When both gates give way, execution takes place. The order goes out to the market. Then the result is measured. Every decision leaves a numbered trace. That result is not lost. It comes back to feed the model. The system retrains, loop after loop, on its own mistakes. These methods equip the largest asset managers. BlackRock relies on its Aladdin platform. It integrates predictive analytics to manage risk. Other quantitative funds follow the same path. Two Sigma and Renaissance Technologies harness huge volumes of real-time data. Computation becomes their edge. Numerai goes even further. This fund outsources the creation of its models. Data scientists from around the world build them together. Between 2024 and 2025, a shift accelerates. Quantum computing enters the algorithms. It handles complex calculations at unprecedented speeds. Two families of methods dominate. Deep learning spots hidden patterns. Reinforcement learning adjusts to the moving market. One sees, the other corrects. But these models remain black boxes. Explaining a decision becomes difficult. You see the result, not the reasoning. This opacity is a concern. The regulator has responded. In 2024, ESMA imposed new rules. They require more transparency on AI trading systems. Two requirements remain in full. Very high quality data is needed. And ESG sustainability criteria are gradually entering the models. A good algorithm knows how to abstain rather than force a decision. At Koaee, we design our conversational assistants with that same restraint. Knowing when to stay silent when doubt prevails. The film gives an overview; the article covers everything, and it's waiting for you in the comments. Find us at koaee.ai. If artificial intelligence interests you, subscribe and like this video.